The South Asian region is highly susceptible to the ramifications of climate change due to its heavy dependence on agricultural practices, densely populated areas, inadequate infrastructure, limited resources, and insufficient adaptation strategies. The adverse consequences of climate change are readily apparent in numerous domains, encompassing the disruption of livelihoods, the escalation of poverty, the increased frequency of natural disasters, the depletion of glaciers, an increase of food insecurity, the disruption of water resources, the decline of biodiversity, and the emergence of health-related challenges. According to the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the process of glacial melting in the Himalayan region presents a substantial danger to the water resources upon which about 1.9 billion people living in South Asia heavily rely on this glacial melt. This issue not only endangers the accessibility of water supplies but also presents concerns about the production of hydropower, agricultural practices, economic activities, and overall livelihoods in the area.
The process of glacial melting in the Himalayan region presents a substantial danger to the water resources upon which about 1.9 billion people living in South Asia heavily rely on this glacial melt
Based on the findings of the Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment, it is projected that by the conclusion of the current century, there will be a considerable reduction of around 75% of Himalayan glaciers. This decline is projected to be primarily attributed to a significant rise in average temperatures, black carbon air deposits, varied precipitation patterns, deforestation, rapid industrialization, and population rise that accelerates the glacial melting process. The complex interplay of climate change and socioeconomic factors deepens South Asia’s sensitivity, resulting in a diverse environment marked by increased vulnerability. It is anticipated that water demand will increase by 40% by 2030, while food demand will increase by 35%. This disparity amplifies problems within marginalized communities, which bare minimal responsibility for climate change’s root causes but grave repercussions.
The World Bank report estimates that agriculture accounts for approximately 15% of South Asia’s gross domestic product (GDP) and sustains the livelihoods of over 50% of the region’s labor force, thereby sustaining rural communities. Nevertheless, water plays a pivotal role in the agricultural sector of South Asia, serving as a fundamental pillar. It facilitates irrigation systems, which are vital to agricultural production, food security, and the livelihoods of millions of people in the region. South Asia’s agricultural sector relies heavily on glacial runoff, precipitation, and underground groundwater as primary water sources. The water supply cycle has a substantial influence on the accessibility of river water, the intricate equilibrium of ecosystems, and the sustainability of agricultural populations that depend on river water for agricultural activities.
Climate change has a huge influence on crop production in South Asia because it disrupts rainfall patterns, leading to both droughts and floods. Additionally, climate change amplifies the frequency of heat waves in the region. These alterations reduce crop yields as a result of water shortages and create a hospitable environment for increased insect outbreaks, thereby compounding agricultural difficulties. Research conducted by the Asian Development Bank suggests that there may be a 10% to 40% drop in agricultural productivity in the region by the year 2050. For instance, Cyclone Amphan’s May 2020 impact on Bangladesh and India’s agriculture was significant, according to Food and Agricultural Organization statistics. It destroyed 86,000 metric tons of rice on 10 million hectares of crops. In 2020, the Indian government reported that over 17,000 hectares of farmland in West Bengal had lost 300,000 metric tons of cereals. These results worsened food shortages.
Research conducted by the Asian Development Bank suggests that there may be a 10% to 40% drop in agricultural productivity in the region by the year 2050
Food insecurity exacerbates malnutrition, leading to stunted growth and increased health challenges, hence amplifying vulnerabilities in South Asia. This situation disproportionately impacts the most susceptible groups, namely children and marginalized communities. The continuous nature of this cycle perpetuates poverty traps, impeding the region’s efforts to achieve socio-economic advancement and larger developmental objectives. Furthermore, the pursuit of improved food access leads to rural-urban migration and conflicts, which strains resources and regional stability. Food insecurity is a complex issue with far-reaching social, economic, and political consequences throughout the area. Every day, roughly 1,500 individuals travel to urban areas in Nepal in quest of a better life. According to an extensive analysis carried out by the World Food Program in 2018, it was noted that a significant proportion, approximately 33.8%, of the population residing in Kathmandu, the esteemed capital city of Nepal, faced the pressing issue of food insecurity.
The pursuit of improved food access leads to rural-urban migration and conflicts, which strains resources and regional stability.
The Stockholm International Water Institute and the International Water Management Institute have issued a dire warning jointly. SIWI’s 2020 research highlights the dire potential for water-sharing disputes to lead to conflict, particularly in resource-rich deltas such as the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta. These conflicts worsen the plight of South Asia’s large population, which is already struggling with food scarcity and socioeconomic difficulties. For instance, the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta region, which is home to more than 200 million people (World Bank, 2019), is prone to conflict due to the complexities of water allocation among India, Bangladesh, and other countries that share river systems. This not only risks geopolitical tensions but also exacerbates the vulnerability of agricultural and fishing-dependent local communities.
The region of South Asia exhibits a notable susceptibility to the challenges of food insecurity that arise due to the impacts of climate change. This vulnerability can be attributed to the region’s insufficient infrastructure and limited adaptive capacity. Regarding the importance of rain-fed agriculture in the region, it is essential to understand its vulnerability to variability in monsoon patterns, intensification of drought conditions, and unexpected episodes of floods. For instance, in the year 2020, Pakistan experienced devastating locust infestations that destroyed crops and worsened the nation’s already precarious food situation. Post-harvest losses can occur because of insufficient storage space and antiquated transportation networks. The Uttarakhand area of India saw flash floods in 2021, illustrating the need for infrastructure to maintain food distribution channels. Millions are in danger because adaptive actions are hampered by a lack of funding and inadequate technology tools.
Climate change, water scarcity, and food insecurity are intertwined issues that require South Asian nations to collaborate on regional initiatives to combat them. In order to build thorough adaptation and mitigation plans using crucial data and expert expertise, it is crucial to form collaborations with research institutions, governments, and stakeholders throughout the globe. To prevent resource allocation disputes from escalating, it is essential to use preventative measures. Nations in the South Asian region may improve their resilience and adaptability to difficulties via the development of cooperation, the adoption of shared duties, and the practice of collective decision-making. It is critical to utilize the shared expertise and skills of all stakeholders so as to effectively manage the complex network of climate-related challenges.
Optimistically, rapid action is needed to tackle the complex climate, water, and food security concerns. Diplomacy must help states cooperate and clarify the pros and cons of climate policy. To ensure a fair distribution of water, cooperative management is needed. Focused institutional development is needed to enhance water management institutions and reduce the negative impacts of water shortages on food security and livelihoods. Resolving governance issues and implementing effective policies may help nations build resilience and sustainability. Stakeholder collaboration is crucial. NGOs, researchers, and politicians should collaborate to find a solution. Collaboration may lead to water-use technologies and sustainable agriculture. By exchanging information and tackling problems collectively, stakeholders can make South Asia more safe, economically viable, and climate-resilient.
About The Author
Imran Zahoor is a PhD candidate and visiting lecturer in the Department of Political Science at the University of Punjab in Lahore, specializing in International Relations. He is currently doing PhD research on the transboundary water issues between India and Pakistan in the context of climate change.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of the original author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views of Rationale-47.
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